In 2025 we saw several firsts that point to real progress on U.S. food waste: bipartisan backing in both chambers for the federal Food Date Labeling Act, new national baselines for retail and foodservice waste, and federal funding for a nationwide consumer education campaign on food waste. Heading into 2026, momentum looks likely to continue. Below are a few food-waste trends ReFED expects to watch this year:

• Higher food prices are changing consumer habits in ways that can reduce household food waste. A November 2025 NielsenIQ/ReFED survey found people coping with elevated food costs by using leftovers more (45%), being more careful to use fresh foods before they spoil (40%), and cutting back on nonessential grocery purchases (48%). We expect these behaviors to increase in 2026 and potentially lower residential food waste; ReFED will track these trends and household waste volumes over the coming year.
• Food businesses will favor solutions that integrate with core operations and improve the bottom line. Innovation is shifting toward systems that build prevention, efficiency, and diversion into everyday operations—especially solutions that don’t rely on continual behavior change. For example, Mill and Whole Foods Market announced last December a commercial deployment to convert produce waste into chicken feed while generating data to optimize inventory and ordering. Another emerging approach is offering customizable portions in restaurants: since about 70% of restaurant food waste is plate waste, and ReFED/Datassential research shows nearly 60% of Americans (rising to ~75% among GLP-1 users) prefer restaurants with portion flexibility, there’s a strong business case for restaurants to adopt such options. ReFED will continue working with food businesses to scale effective solutions.
• Bipartisan, administration-level support for reducing food waste is likely to persist. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin emphasized on Dec. 24 that reducing, redirecting, and repurposing surplus food benefits families, farmers, businesses, and communities. That federal-level commitment supports potential actions in 2026—from passage of the Food Date Labeling Act to expansion of EPA’s Feed It Onward and federal backing for imperfect-produce markets. While state budgets may constrain investments in things like organics recycling, many state legislators remained engaged in 2025, and we expect continued policy activity. ReFED will collaborate with policymakers at all levels to drive data-informed food-waste reductions.
• AI will keep improving the effectiveness and scalability of food-waste solutions. AI is being applied across prevention, recovery, and recycling—helping with smarter purchasing and inventory decisions, better waste tracking in foodservice, and more efficient matching of surplus grocery items to bargain-seeking consumers. ReFED plans to publish an insights report soon on AI’s role in food waste.
• The link between food-waste reduction and social impact will attract new philanthropic and impact-investment capital. Reducing food waste advances multiple social goals—food security, affordability, consumer savings—making it appealing to funders focused on social impact. During the late-2025 SNAP crisis, food-recovery groups stepped in to fill gaps, demonstrating the social value of these efforts and likely motivating new funders. ReFED will keep engaging philanthropists and impact investors through initiatives like the Food Waste Funder Circle.

To read the full article, visit: What’s Ahead? Our 2026 Food Waste Forecast